World Bank (2003): Breaking the Conflict Trap

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Civil War and Development Policy

Die Weltbank-Analyse zeigt die Folgen der Bürgerkriege auf Menschen und Ökonomie. Das Ziel der Analyse: Die Notwendigkeit von internationalen humanitären Interventionen soll belegt werden. Die Legitimität dieses Ansatzes leitet sich aus denselbstgestellten Zielen der Weltbank ab: Da die Weltbank die Entwicklung in der Welt fördern soll und da Bürgerkriege Faktoren der Rückentwicklung sind, müssen Bürgerkriege verhindert oder abgekürzt werden.

Die Weltbank-Analyse über die ökonomischen und sozialen Folgen (Reihenfolge der Weltbank) von Bürgerkriegen hat leider keinen wirklich tragfähigen Begriff zugrunde gelegt: Alles, was sich an bewaffneten Auseinandersetzungen innerhalb gegebenerStaatsgrenzen abspielt, wird als Bürgerkrieg bezeichnet. Was aber sind Staaten in weiten Teilen der Welt anderes als historisch junge, von außen vorgenomme Grenzziehungen? Wie hat man "Bürgerkriege" zu bewerten, die wieder zu neuen Staatenbildungenführen? Hören die irgendwann auf, Bürgerkriege zu sein? Warum nicht auch Einbeziehung dieser Kriege in diese Analyse? Dann müßte man sich auch der Frage stellen, wieweit kriegerische Interventionen zur Vermeidung von Bürgerkriegen gegenteiligeEffekte haben als die Bürgerkriege selbst.

Auch die soziologische Struktur dieser Auseinandersetzungen wird eingeebnet. Russischer Bürgerkrieg von 1920, Kambodscha, Ruanda, Jugoslawien. Man könnte noch den amerikanischen Bürgerkrieg hinzufügen: Auf dieser Grundlage eines eher alltagspolitischen Begriffs kann eine historisch-vergleichende Analyse nicht stattfinden, bestenfalls beginnen. Letztlich bleibt alles im Rahmen einer Cost-Benefit-Analyse mit ethischen einsprengseln, trotz der punktuell interessanten, weil gängigen Klischees widersprechenden Ergebnissen.

Empirische Arbeit; Rüstung/Abrüstung/Friedenspolitik; Institutioneller Report/Regierungsbericht; Entwicklungspolitik/Unterentwicklung; Imperialismus/Globalisierung/Internationalisierung

Civil war conflict is a core development issue. The existence of civil war can dramatically slow a country's development process, especially in low-income countries, which are more vulnerable to civil war conflict. When development succeeds, countries become safer; when development fails, countries experience greater risk of being caught in a conflict trap. Ultimately, civil war is a failure of development. This book identifies the dire consequences that civil war has on the development process and offers three main findings: (i) civil wars have adverse ripple effects, which are often not taken into account by those determine when to start or end a war; (ii) some countries are more likely than others to experience civil war conflict and therefore the risks of civil war differ considerable according to a country's characteristics including its economic stability. Finally, this book explores viable international measures that can be taken to reduce the global incidence of civil war and propose a practical agenda for action. This book will also be of great interest to researchers, academics, and anyone interested in conflict and post-conflict resolution.

Foreword vii
The Report Team xi
Acronyms and Abbreviations xiii
Overview 1
Let Them Fight It Out among Themselves? 1
What Can We Do about Ancestral Hatreds? 3
The Conflict Trap 4
The Rising Global Incidence of Conflict 5
Nothing Can Be Done 6
PART I. CRY HAVOC:
WHY CIVIL WAR MATTERS 11
1. Civil War as Development in Reverse 13
Costs during Conflict 13
Legacy Effects of Civil War 19
Conclusion 31
2. Let Them Fight It Out among Themselves? 33
Neighborhood Effects of Civil War 33
Global Effects of Civil War 41
Conclusion 48
PART II. WHAT FUELS CIVIL WAR? 51
3. What Makes a Country Prone to Civil War? 53
Understanding Rebellion 55
The Conflict Trap 79
Conclusion

4. Why Is Civil War So Common? 93
Changes in the Global Pattern of Civil War 93
Changes in the Incidence of Civil War 98
Unpacking the Global Incidence of Civil War 100
Conclusion: Poverty and the Conflict Trap 117
PART III. POLICIES FOR PEACE 119
5. What Works Where? 121
Conflict Prevention in the Successful Developers 122
Marginalized Countries at Peace 125
Ending Conflicts 140
Reducing Postconflict Risks 150
Conclusion 171
6. An Agenda for International Action 173
Precedents for International Action 174
International Policies for Peace 175
Conclusion: A New Goal for 2015? 186
Appendix 1. Methods and Data 189
Data Set and Model 189
Data Sources 193
Appendix 2. A Selected Bibliography of
Studies of Civil War and Rebellion 197
Economic Factors 197
Role of Ethnicity and Nationalism 198
Anatomy of Rebellion 199
Role of the State 199
Negotiation and Implementation of Peace 200
Bibliography 200
References 211
Boxes
1.1 Violent conflict and the transformation of social capital 16
1.2 Refugees and IDPs in Liberia and Sudan 20
1.3 Angola 28
1.4 Psychological trauma 29
1.5 Landmines: A bitter legacy for Cambodians 31
2.1 Regional arms races 34
2.2 Eritrea 40
3.1 Modeling the risk of civil war 58
3.2 Oil and demands for secession in Nigeria 61
3.3 Inefficient counterinsurgency measures in Indonesia 73
3.4 Financing the Chechen rebellion 78

3.5 Modeling the duration of civil war 80
4.1 Recurrent conflicts example 1: Afghanistan 104
4.2 Recurrent conflicts example 2: Angola 105
5.1 A comparison of Botswana and Sierra Leone 127
5.2 Transparency of oil revenues in Chad 131
5.3 The rough diamond trade and the Kimberley process 143
5.4 The Khmer Rouge and the logs of war 145
Figures
1.1 GDP per capita before and after civil war 14
1.2 Total number of refugees, 1962–2002 18
1.3 Increase in mortality rates due to civil war 24
2.1 The flow and stock of refugees, 1951–2002 36
2.2 The stock of refugees and civil wars, 1951–2001 37
2.3 Refugees and cases of malaria, 1962–97 38
2.4 Opium production, 1986–2001 43
2.5 Cocaine production, 1986–2001 43
2.6 Opium production in Afghanistan and heroin seizures in Europe,
1980–2001 45
2.7 Estimates of annual opiate and cocaine use in the late 1990s 45
3.1 Ethnic fractionalization and the risk of civil war 59
3.2 Risk of civil war for the typical low-income country with and
without ethnic dominance during a five-year period 59
3.3 Risk of civil wars from natural resources endowment 61
3.4 The risk of civil war in domocracies and nondemocracies
at different levels of income 65
3.5 Improved economic performance and the risk of civil war 67
3.6 Military expenditures and the risk of civil war 72
3.7 Natural resources and the risk of civil war for low-income
countries 76
3.8 How chances of peace evolve worldwide 81
3.9 Duration of civil wars over time 82
3.10 The risk of civil war for a typical civil war country, just before
and just after war 83
3.11 Diasporas and postconflict risk 85
3.12 Military spending and the risk of renewed conflict in postconflict
countries 86
4.1 The global incidence of civil warfare, 1950–2001 94
4.2 Simulating the effects of the waves of decolonization,
1950–2020 95
4.3 Proportion of civil wars that end each year 96
4.4 The global self-sustaining incidence of civil war, by decades 97
4.5 Factors changing the global risk of conflict 99
4.6 The changing rates of conflict termination 100
4.7 Divergent risks: marginalized countries relative to
successful developers 102

4.8 Development of risk of civil war for the marginalized and successful
developers, 2000–2020 103
4.9 The conflict trap: risk of civil war relative to a country with
no recent war 106
4.10 The conflict trap by type of country 107
4.11 Risk components for marginalized countries in the conflict trap,
relative to the same countries preconflict 107
4.12 The conflict trap in 2000: annual flows into and out
of conflict 109
4.13a The conflict trap in 2020: annual flows into and out
of conflict 111
4.13b The conflict trap in 2050: annual flows into and out
of conflict 111
4.14 The incidence of civil war in South and East Asia and in Oceania,
1950–2001 112
4.15 The incidence of civil war in Latin America and the Caribbean,
1950–2001 113
4.16 The incidence of civil war in Eastern Europe and Central Asia,
1950–2001 113
4.17 The incidence of civil war in the Middle East and North Africa,
1950–2001 114
4.18 The incidence of civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa,
1950–2001 114
4.19 The incidence of civil war in Africa and other developing countries,
1950–2001 115
5.1 The contribution to peace of faster growth in the successful
developers 124
5.2 The contribution to peace of faster growth in the marginalized
countries 135
5.3 The contribution to peace of shortening conflicts 141
5.4 The contribution to peace of successful postconflict policies 151
6.1 The contribution of the policy package to peace 187
Tables
1.1 Major refugee and IDP populations, 2001 19
1.2 Mortality rates among children under five in refugee
and IDP camps, selected conflicts 25
1.3 Effects of civil war on public health 26
1.4 HIV prevalence in the military, selected countries and years 27
2.1 Production of opium and coca, selected countries
and years, 1990–2001 42
2.2 Prevalence estimates of opiate and cocaine use, selected industrial
countries and years 46
3.1 Size of rebel organizations, selected countries and years 55