1 Perspectives on long-term economic growth variations 1 The traverse perspective 1 The Kondratieff wave 3 The long-swing perspective 10 Conclusions 12 2 Statistical methodology 14 The existing statistical methodology 14 The statistical framework 17 3 Production trends in the world economy 27 Britain 27 Germany 36 France 43 America 48 The world economy 55 General conclusion 61 Statistical appendix 62 4 Price trends 71 Theoretical aspects 71 Empirical aspects 75 Explanations for price phases 80 Conclusions 87 Statistical appendix 88 5 Innovation clusters and Kondratieff waves 89 Some theoretical considerations 89 Empirical considerations on innovation clusters 91 Conclusions 100 6 The national aspects of Kuznets swings, 1850-1913 101 Investment swings 103 Profitability long swings 108 Sectoral and inter-sectoral aspects 110 Climatic variations and long swings 117 Monetary aspects 124 Credit, financial crises and long swings 128 Conclusions 129 Statistical appendix 130 7 The international aspects of Kuznets swings, 1850-1913 132 Long swings in overseas investment 132 The international terms of trade and long swings 138 The international determinants of relative profitability variations 144 Conclusions 145 8 A long-term perspective of interwar economic growth 147 Long-term economic growth trends 147 Long swings 149 Inter-sectoral relationships 151 Debt problems and financial crises 155 Population-sensitive investments 157 Conclusions 159 9 Some conclusions on the postwar boom, 1950-1973 161 The technological gap 161 Other factors accounting for the postwar boom 163 Conclusions 167 10 Conclusions 169
