Part I: The Facts of Business Cycles 1
1 Why Study Business Cycles? 3
2 Describing Business Cycles 11
Part II: The Macroeconomic Theory of Business Cycles and Forecasting 23
3 Early Business Cycle Theories 25
4 Keynes′s and Keynesian Theory 39
5 The Monetarist Model 55
6 The Rational Expectations Model 73
7 Real Business Cycle Models 85
8 New Keynesian Models 97
9 Models of Credit and Financial Instability 111
10 Macroeconomic Forecasting 131
Part III: Business Cycles in the United States 145
11 The Great Depression 147
12 Postwar Business Cycles in the United States 163
Part IV: Modern International Recessions and Depressions 187
13 The East Asian Crisis and the IMF 189
14 The Great Recession in Japan 217
15 The 2007 Global Financial Crisis 231
16 Conclusions—What We Know and Do Not Know about Business Cycles 251