Preface
I. Theories and evidence.
1. Macroeconomics and business cycles: An overview.
2. Recent work on business cycles in historical perspective.
3. Facts and factors in the modern evolution of U.S. economic fluctuations.
4. Cyclical aspects of cost and price movements.
5. Research during the first 50 years of the National Bureau.
II. History and measurement.
6. How trends and fluctuations are observed, modeled, and simulated: An introduction.
7. Business cycles and growth.
8. The regularity of business cycles.
9. Econometric model simulations and the cyclical characteristics of the economy.
III. Indicators.
10. Cyclical indicators: Structure, significance, and uses.
11. Composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators.
12. Major macroeconomic variables and leading indexes.
IV. Forecasting.
13. On short-term predictions of general economic conditions.
14. An analysis of annual and multiperiod quarterly aggregate forecasts.
15. The accuracy of individual and group forecasts.
16. Rational expectations and macroeconomic forecasts.
17. Consensus and uncertainty in economic prediction.
18. The record and improvability of economic forecasting.
References. Author index.
Subject index.
