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Literatur zur Politischen Ökonomie
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Aghion (2009): The Economics of Growth
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Titel:
The Economics of Growth
Ort: Verl.:
Jahr:
2009
Anmerkung:
Hier kann, wer will, tief eintauchen in die akademische Welt des mathematischen Nicht-Begreifens. Das ist die Soße mit, der allen Ökonomiestudenten die Sichtweise der herrschenden Klasse serviert wird; natürlich streng objektiv. Geschichte und Gesellschaft, politische Kämpfe und ökonomische Interessen kommen nicht einmal als Variablensatz vor. Sie werden funktionell eliminiert, kehren als Externalitäten und Friktionen nur nin Nebensätzen zurück. Hier ist die Welt von Harvard noch in Ordnung.
Faksimile:
Kleinbild
Deskribierung:
Inhalt:
Preface xvii
Why This Book? xvii
For Whom? xviii
Outline of the Book xix
Acknowledgments xxi
Introduction 1
I.1 Why Study Economic Growth? 1
I.2 Some Facts and Puzzles 1
I.2.1 Growth and Poverty Reduction 1
I.2.2 Convergence 2
I.2.3 Growth and Inequality 4
I.2.4 The Transition from Stagnation to Growth 5
I.2.5 Finance and Growth 5
I.3 Growth Policies 6
I.3.1 Competition and Entry 7
I.3.2 Education and Distance to Frontier 8
I.3.3 Macroeconomic Policy and Growth 10
I.3.4 Trade and Growth 10
I.3.5 Democracy and Growth 11
I.4 Four Growth Paradigms 12
I.4.1 The Neoclassical Growth Model 12
I.4.2 The AK Model 13
I.4.3 The Product-Variety Model 14
I.4.4 The Schumpeterian Model 15

PART I: BASIC PARADIGMS OF GROWTH THEORY 19
1 Neoclassical Growth Theory 21
1.1 Introduction 21
1.2 The Solow-Swan Model 21
1.2.1 Population Growth 24
1.2.2 Exogenous Technological Change 27
1.2.3 Conditional Convergence 29
1.3 Extension: The Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey Model 31
1.3.1 No Technological Progress 31
1.3.2 Exogenous Technological Change 37
1.4 Conclusion 39
1.5 Literature Notes 39

Appendix 1A: Steady State and Convergence in the Cass-Koopmans-Ramsey Model 40
Appendix 1B: Dynamic Optimization Using the Hamiltonian 43
Problems 45

2 The AK Model 47
2.1 Introduction 47
2.1.1 The Harrod-Domar Model 48
2.2 A Neoclassical Version of Harrod-Domar 49
2.2.1 Basic Setup 49
2.2.2 Three Cases 51
2.3 An AK Model with Intertemporal Utility Maximization 52
2.3.1 The Setup 53
2.3.2 Long-Run Growth 54
2.3.3 Welfare 55
2.3.4 Concluding Remarks 55
2.4 The Debate between Neoclassical and AK Advocates, in a Nutshell 56
2.5 An Open-Economy AK Model with Convergence 60
2.5.1 A Two-Sector Closed Economy 61
2.5.2 Opening up the Economy with Fixed Terms of Trade 62
2.5.3 Closing the Model with a Two-Country Analysis 64
2.5.4 Concluding Comment 66
2.6 Conclusion 66
2.7 Literature Notes 67
Problems 67

3 Product Variety 69
3.1 Introduction 69
3.2 Endogenizing Technological Change 69
3.2.1 A Simple Variant of the Product-Variety Model 70
3.2.2 The Romer Model with Labor as R&D Input 74
3.3 From Theory to Evidence 77
3.3.1 Estimating the Effect of Variety on Productivity
3.3.2 The Importance of Exit in the Growth Process 79
3.4 Conclusion 80
3.5 Literature Notes 81
Problems 82

4 The Schumpeterian Model 85
4.1 Introduction 85
4.2 A One-Sector Model 85
4.2.1 The Basics 85
4.2.2 Production and Pro? ts 86
4.2.3 Innovation 87
4.2.4 Research Arbitrage 88
4.2.5 Growth 89
4.2.6 A Variant with Nondrastic Innovations 90
4.2.7 Comparative Statics 91
4.3 A Multisector Model 92
4.3.1 Production and Pro? t 92
4.3.2 Innovation and Research Arbitrage 94
4.3.3 Growth 95
4.4 Scale Effects 96
4.5 Conclusion 99
4.6 Literature Notes 100
Problems 101

5 Capital, Innovation, and Growth Accounting 105
5.1 Introduction 105
5.2 Measuring the Growth of Total Factor Productivity 106
5.2.1 Empirical Results 107
5.3 Some Problems with Growth Accounting 109
5.3.1 Problems in Measuring Capital, and the Tyranny of Numbers 109
5.3.2 Accounting versus Causation 112
5.4 Capital Accumulation and Innovation 113
5.4.1 The Basics 114
5.4.2 Innovation and Growth 116
5.4.3 Steady-State Capital and Growth 116
5.4.4 Implications for Growth Accounting 118
5.5 Conclusion 119
5.6 Literature Notes 119
Appendix: Transitional Dynamics 120
Problems 121

PART II: UNDERSTANDING THE GROWTH PROCESS 127
6 Finance and Growth 129
6.1 Introduction 129
6.2 Innovation and Growth with Financial Constraints 130
6.2.1 Basic Setup 130
6.2.2 Innovation Technology and Growth without Credit Constraint 132
6.2.3 Credit Constraints: A Model with Ex Ante Screening 132
6.2.4 A Model with Ex Post Monitoring and Moral Hazard 134
6.3 Credit Constraints, Wealth Inequality, and Growth 136
6.3.1 Diminishing Marginal Product of Capital 136
6.3.2 Productivity Differences 139
6.4 The Empirical Findings: Levine′s Survey, in a Nutshell 142
6.4.1 Cross-Country 143
6.4.2 Cross-Industry 145
6.5 Conclusion 147
6.6 Literature Notes 147
Problems 148

7 Technology Transfer and Cross-Country Convergence 151
7.1 Introduction 151
7.2 A Model of Club Convergence 152
7.2.1 Basics 152
7.2.2 Innovation 153
7.2.3 Productivity and Distance to Frontier 154
7.2.4 Convergence and Divergence 156
7.3 Credit Constraints as a Source of Divergence 158
7.3.1 Theory 159
7.3.2 Evidence 161
7.4 Conclusion 163
7.5 Literature Notes 165
Problems 166

8 Market Size and Directed Technical Change 169
8.1 Introduction 169
8.2 Market Size in Drugs 169
8.2.1 Theory 169
8.2.2 Evidence 171
8.3 Wage Inequality 173
8.3.1 The Debate 174
8.3.2 The Market-Size Explanation 176
8.4 Appropriate Technology and Productivity Differences 182
8.4.1 Basic Setup 182
8.4.2 Equilibrium Output and Pro? ts 183
8.4.3 Skill-Biased Technical Change 184
8.4.4 Explaining Cross-Country Productivity Differences 185
8.5 Conclusion 186
8.6 Literature Notes 187
Problems 188

9 General-Purpose Technologies 193
9.1 Introduction 193
9.2 Explaining Productivity Slowdowns 196
9.2.1 General-Purpose Technologies in the Neoclassical Model 196
9.2.2 Schumpeterian Waves 198
9.3 GPT and Wage Inequality 204
9.3.1 Explaining the Increase in the Skill Premium 204
9.3.2 Explaining the Increase in Within-Group Inequality 206
9.4 Conclusion 210
9.5 Literature Notes 211
Problems 212

10 Stages of Growth 217
10.1 Introduction 217
10.2 From Stagnation to Growth 217
10.2.1 Malthusian Stagnation 217
10.2.2 The Transition to Growth 222
10.2.3 Commentary 224
10.3 From Capital Accumulation to Innovation 226
10.3.1 Human-Capital Accumulation 226
10.3.2 Physical-Capital Accumulation 227
10.4 From Manufacturing to Services 230
10.5 Conclusion 232
10.6 Literature Notes 232
Problems 233

11 Institutions and Nonconvergence Traps 237
11.1 Introduction 237
11.2 Do Institutions Matter? 238
11.2.1 Legal Origins 239
11.2.2 Colonial Origins 240
11.3 Appropriate Institutions and Nonconvergence Traps 243
11.3.1 Some Motivating Facts 243
11.3.2 A Simple Model of Distance to Frontier and Appropriate
Institutions 246
11.4 Conclusion 258
11.5 Literature Notes 261
Problems 263

PART III: GROWTH POLICY 265
12 Fostering Competition and Entry 267
12.1 Introduction 267
12.2 From Leapfrogging to Step-by-Step Technological Progress 267
12.2.1 Basic Environment 268
12.2.2 Technology and Innovation 269
12.2.3 Equilibrium Pro? ts and Competition in Level and Unlevel Sectors 269
12.2.4 The Schumpeterian and ″Escape-Competition″ Effects 271
12.2.5 Composition Effect and the Inverted U 272
12.2.6 Empirical Evidence 274
12.3 Entry 274
12.3.1 The Environment 276
12.3.2 Technology and Entry 276
12.3.3 Equilibrium Innovation Investments 277
12.3.4 The Effect of Labor Market Regulations 278
12.3.5 Main Theoretical Predictions 279
12.3.6 Evidence on the Growth Effects of Entry 279
12.3.7 Evidence on the Effects of (De)Regulating Entry 280
12.4 Conclusion 281
12.5 Literature Notes 282
Problems 283

13 Investing in Education 287
13.1 Introduction 287
13.2 The Capital Accumulation Approach 288
13.2.1 Back to Mankiw, Romer, and Weil 288
13.2.2 Lucas 292
13.2.3 Threshold Effects and Low-Development Traps 295
13.3 Nelson and Phelps and the Schumpeterian Approach 297
13.3.1 The Nelson and Phelps Approach 297
13.3.2 Low-Development Traps Caused by the Complementarity between R&D and Education Investments 300
13.4 Schumpeter Meets Gerschenkron 302
13.4.1 A Model of Distance to Frontier and the Composition of Education Spending 302
13.4.2 Cross-Country and Cross-U.S.-State Evidence 307
13.5 Conclusion 311
13.6 Literature Notes 312
Problems 314

14 Reducing Volatility and Risk 319
14.1 Introduction 319
14.2 The AK Approach 321
14.2.1 The Jones, Manuelli, and Stacchetti Model 321
14.2.2 Counterfactuals 324
14.3 Short-versus Long-Term Investments 326
14.3.1 The Argument 326
14.3.2 Motivating Evidence 327
14.3.3 The AABM Model 329
14.3.4 Confronting the Credit Constraints Story with Evidence 339
14.3.5 An Alternative Explanation for the Procyclicality of R&D 340
14.4 Risk Diversi? cation, Financial Development, and Growth 341
14.4.1 Basic Framework 341
14.4.2 Analysis 343
14.4.3 Equilibrium Dynamics 345
14.5 Conclusion 347
14.6 Literature Notes 348
Problems 349

15 Liberalizing Trade 353
15.1 Introduction 353
15.2 Preliminary: Back to the Multisector Closed-Economy Model 355
15.2.1 Production and National Income 355
15.2.2 Innovation 357
15.3 Opening Up to Trade, Abstracting from Innovation 358
15.3.1 The Experiment 358
15.3.2 The Effects of Openness on National Income 360
15.4 The Effects of Openness on Innovation and Long-Run Growth 363
15.4.1 Step-by-Step Innovation 363
15.4.2 Three Cases 364
15.4.3 Equilibrium Innovation and Growth 365
15.4.4 Scale and Escape Entry 365
15.4.5 The Discouragement Effect of Foreign Entry 366
15.4.6 Steady-State Aggregate Growth 367
15.4.7 How Trade Can Enhance Growth in All Countries 368
15.4.8 How Trade Can Reduce Growth in One Country 369
15.5 Conclusion 371
15.6 Literature Notes 372
Problems 374

16 Preserving the Environment 377
16.1 Introduction 377
16.2 The One-Sector AK Model with an Exhaustible Resource 377
16.3 Schumpeterian Growth with an Exhaustible Resource 379
16.4 Environment and Directed Technical Change 381
16.4.1 Basic Setup 381
16.4.2 Equilibrium Outputs and Pro? ts 382
16.4.3 Taxing Dirty Production 384
16.4.4 Equilibrium Innovation 385
16.4.5 Growth and the Cost of Taxing Dirty Output 387
16.4.6 Evidence of Directed Technical Change Effects in the Energy Sector 389
16.4.7 Concluding Remarks 390
16.5 Literature Notes 391

Appendix: Optimal Schumpeterian Growth with an Exhaustible
Resource 392
Problems 395

17 Promoting Democracy 399
17.1 Introduction 399
17.2 Democracy, Income, and Growth in Existing Regressions 399
17.2.1 Irrelevance Results When Controlling for Country Fixed Effects 400
17.2.2 No Apparent Correlation between Democracy and Public Policy 400
17.3 Democracy, Entry, and Growth: A Simple Model 401
17.3.1 Production and Pro? ts 402
17.3.2 Entry and Incumbent Innovation 402
17.3.3 Politics and the Equilibrium Probability of Entry 405
17.3.4 Main Prediction 407
17.4 Evidence on the Relationship between Democracy, Growth, and Technological Development 407
17.4.1 Data and Regression Equation 407
17.4.2 Basic Results 408
17.5 Democracy, Inequality, and Growth 410
17.5.1 The Model 410
17.5.2 Solving the Model 411
17.5.3 Discussion 413
17.6 Conclusion 414
17.7 Literature Notes 414
Problems 415

CONCLUSION 417

18 Looking Ahead: Culture and Development 419
18.1 What We Have Learned, in a Nutshell 419
18.2 Culture and Growth 420
18.2.1 Regulation and Trust 422
18.2.2 Investing in Children′s Patience 425
18.3 Growth and Development 429
18.3.1 Growth through the Lens of Development Economics 429
18.3.2 The Case for Targeted Growth Policy 434
18.4 Conclusion 439

Appendix: Solving the Doepke-Zilibotti Model 441
Appendix: Basic Elements of Econometrics 443
A.1 The Simple Regression Model 443
A.2 The Ordinary Least Squares Estimator 444
A.3 Multiple Regression Analysis 446
A.4 Inference and Hypothesis Testing 447
A.5 How to Deal with the Endogeneity Problem 449
A.6 Fixed-Effects Regressions 452
A.7 Reading a Regression Table 453

References 457

Index 477


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